AL Central-leading Twins visit Indians

Baseball Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins take a growing lead atop the American League Central's Division into a six-game road trip that begins with tonight's matchup with the Cleveland Indians from Progressive Field.

The red-hot Twins just concluded a latest homestand by ripping off six consecutive victories and have won 11 of their past 13 contests to increase their margin over second-place Chicago in the Central standings. With the White Sox losing at Detroit on Thursday, Minnesota now owns a season-high six- game advantage for the division's top spot.

Following this three-game set against the Indians, the Twins will travel to Chicago for three straight meetings with the White Sox beginning Tuesday.

Minnesota will be entering Progressive Field off a three-game sweep of Kansas City capped off by Wednesday's 4-3 decision. The Twins scored three times in the bottom of the fifth inning to erase a 1-0 deficit, then staved off a Royals' rally in the ninth to prevail.

Denard Span knocked in two of the fifth-inning runs with a triple and Matt Tolbert added a RBI single for Minnesota. J.J. Hardy finished with two hits, including a solo home run, and scored twice to help back another strong outing from Twins starter Brian Duensing.

Duensing (8-2) worked the first eight innings and held the Royals to one run and six hits while striking out seven to improve to 5-1 as a starter this season.

"[Duensing] was good. His changeup was really good," said Kansas City manager Ned Yost. "The guys kept coming back [to the dugout] and were saying they could see [the changeup] good, they just couldn't wait on it."

Matt Capps picked up his 11th save since coming to the Twins in a midseason trade in Wednesday's win, despite letting up a pair of runs in the top of the ninth. The Royals brought the tying run to second base against the former Washington closer, but he retired pinch-hitter Mitch Maier on a game-ending fly ball to kill the comeback attempt.

Minnesota will send out one of its best road pitchers to open up this trip in 16-game winner Carl Pavano. The veteran righty has posted a very solid 3.20 earned run average in 15 starts away from home this season, while winning eight of 14 decisions.

Pavano was mired in a three-start losing streak that included back-to-back road setbacks to Texas and Seattle to close out August, but was able to return to the win column in last Saturday's 12-4 triumph over the Rangers in Minneapolis. The oft-injured hurler lasted eight innings that night and allowed three runs while scattering eight hits.

The 34-year-old, who made 21 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Twins during August of last season, beat his former club by tossing seven innings of two-run ball in an August 7 clash at Progressive Field and is 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA over four lifetime starts against Cleveland.

Pavano will be opposed tonight by Fausto Carmona, who'll be seeking to end a string of six consecutive losing starts in the opener. The 2010 All-Star hasn't won since an August 2 verdict over Boston at Fenway Park, and his most recent victory at home took place on July 23. Carmona has been dealt defeats in each of his last five trips to the Progressive Field mound, and is just 5-9 with a 4.32 ERA at his home park for the season.

Carmona did pitch well enough to end his drought in a September 3 game at Seattle, limiting the Mariners to one run and four hits in an eight-inning complete game. However, the right-hander received no help from his offense and came out on the short end of a 1-0 decision.

The Dominican native's losing skid began in a head-to-head battle with Pavano at Progressive Field on August 7, with Carmona reached for five runs and 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings. The result continued his career-long struggles against the Twins, as the 26-year-old is 3-8 with a 5.52 ERA over 16 games (12 starts) versus Minnesota.

Cleveland returns home after going 4-3 on a seven-game West Coast swing. The Tribe had a chance to produce a series sweep over the fading Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on Wednesday, but came up just short in a 4-3, 16-inning loss.

Torii Hunter led off Anaheim's half of the 16th with a double off Hector Ambriz and moved to third on a groundout before Jeff Mathis lofted a fly ball to right that was plenty deep enough to bring home the deciding run.

The Indians had sent the contest into extra innings by scratching home a run in the top of the ninth. Matt LaPorta started the rally with a leadoff single, with pinch-runner Luis Valbuena advancing on a Jason Donald base hit before racing home on Jayson Nix's single off Angels closer Fernando Rodney.

Andy Marte had a solo homer earlier on for Cleveland, while starting pitcher Josh Tomlin surrendered three runs and just three hits in a six-inning stint. Ambriz (0-2) pitched 3 1/3 innings in relief, permitting just the one run and a single hit.

Minnesota has won seven of 12 games against the Indians this season, including four of the six bouts held in Cleveland.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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