Giants try to further close gap on West-leading Padres

Baseball Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The battle for National League West supremacy between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres resumes this evening with the second installment of a four-game series from Petco Park.

The Giants drew first blood with Thursday's 7-3 win in the series opener, trimming San Diego's once-comfortable lead atop the division standings to just one game thanks to a 13-hit attack highlighted by two-run homers from veteran Aubrey Huff and rookie Buster Posey.

"This is such a big series," Huff said. "To be able to come out and get the first game is huge, you know. You lose that game, you're down three and it's a little bit deflating. But now you're back down to one. So we've got three more games here. We've got to keep rolling. If we win this and lose the rest it really doesn't mean much."

Juan Uribe and Pat Burrell both went deep for the Giants, who are also only a game behind Atlanta for the Senior Circuit's Wild Card berth as well. Huff and Freddy Sanchez finished with three hits apiece, while starting pitcher Matt Cain recorded the win with eight innings of three-run ball. Relievers Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez worked the ninth to preserve the victory.

San Francisco owns a 5-2 mark on their 10-game road trip against NL West foes and has won seven of its last nine games overall. It will send Jonathan Sanchez to the mound Friday night with hopes of him keeping an unbeaten streak intact. Sanchez is 2-0 in his last four starts and defeated the Dodgers on Sunday with seven shutout innings in a 3-0 win.

Sanchez reached 10 wins in a season for the first time in his career and will try to bounce back against a Padres club that beat him on August 13 at AT&T Park. In the 3-2 loss that day, Sanchez gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings and is only 2-5 with a solid 2.88 ERA through 17 lifetime matchups (10 starts) with San Diego.

The Padres appeared to be back on track with a three-game sweep of Los Angeles following a season-high 10-game losing streak, but reverted back to their losing ways last night versus the hard-charging Giants.

Jon Garland was aiming for his 14th win of the season before he surrendered six runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings. Garland didn't get much help offensively, as the Padres ended with five hits, two of which off the bat of Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick clubbed a two-run homer and Will Venable cracked a solo home run in defeat. Ludwick is hitting .225 with four home runs and 16 RBI in 36 games since being acquired from St. Louis in late July.

"I think it was just kind of one of those days that there were some balls that were well struck," Venable said. "It did seem like it was carrying a little more than usual."

San Diego fell to 3-4 on a 10-game residency versus division foes and is relying on starting pitcher Clayton Richard to pull the club back into the win column. Richard has a perfect track record against the Giants this season, having gone 3-0 with a 2.05 earned run average in four starts. He beat San Francisco on August 13 and is 3-1 in five career starts in this series.

Richard, however, is 0-1 despite a 1.98 ERA in his last two starts since going 5-0 over his previous six outings. He did not figure into the decision of Sunday's 4-2 loss versus Colorado, as he was reached for two runs -- one earned -- and nine hits in six frames. The lefty remained at 12-6 to go along with a 3.43 ERA in 28 starts this season.

San Diego has dominated the season series with the Giants by a 9-3 count, including a 4-2 ledger at Petco Park.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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