09/05/2008 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA topped Toronto FC 2-1 last week in Major League Soccer action, but when the two teams square off at BMO Field on Saturday, both will be facing extreme hardships.
Toronto will be missing nine starters because of international call-ups and Chivas USA has two called up as well as a host of injuries to deal with.
"I've had some challenges in my life, but I've never had anything like this," Carver said. "We have played games with six or seven players missing, like when we beat L.A. earlier this season, but this time Julius James and Marvell Wynne got call-ups and Jarrod Smith is also away with New Zealand.
"I've hardly been able to work with a consistent team all season because we keep losing players to internationals. To be honest, we played on Saturday with what was probably our strongest team of the season and we were dreadful, but there haven't been many times this season when I have been able to put my strongest team on the field."
TFC (7-10-5) will have just one first-team defender - Marco Velez - available and just five other players - Chad Barrett, Danny Dichio, Rohan Ricketts, Abdus Ibrahim and Kevin Harmse - who have seen significant minutes with the first team.
"This is what I consider a case of extreme hardship," Carver told the Toronto Sun. "Right now I'm calling around looking to get players on loan so I can fill out a game sheet."
The players missing because of international duty are goalkeeper Greg Sutton, defenders Jim Brennan, James and Wynne, midfielders Amado Guevara, Tyrone Marshall, Smith and Carl Robinson, and forward Carlos Ruiz. On top of that, defenders Todd Dunivant and Nana Attakora-Gyan are out with injuries.
Goalkeeper Brian Edwards will get his sixth start of the season with Sutton away.
"We will have a lot of new faces in defense and some of the guys who will be playing there don't even play at the back in practice, so we have a huge task in front of us," Edwards said. "We are all working toward the same thing and if we can work hard in training this week to get to be a collective unit, I'm sure we can put on a good performance and surprise some people."
Chivas USA (7-9-6) will have little sympathy for its opponent on Saturday, however, as it is dealing with injury concerns of its own - which it has been all season.
The Goats will be without midfielders Jesse Marsch and Raphael Wicky, and defenders Claudio Suarez, Carey Talley and Alex Zotinca. Forward Maykel Galindo is also listed as questionable. Also, midfielders Sacha Kljestan and Shavar Thomas are on international duty and forward Atiba Harris is out because of yellow card accumulation.
With the win last week, Chivas USA was able to climb to third in the Western table while Toronto is still stuck in a last-place tie with Kansas City in the East.
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Bern
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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